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Cell states evolve through the combined activity of signaling pathways and gene networks. While transcription factors can direct cell fate, these factors rely on a receptive cell state. How signaling levels contribute to the emergence of receptive cell states remains poorly defined. Using a well-defined model of direct conversion, we examined how levels of the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK)-activating oncogene HRASG12V influence direct conversion of primary fibroblasts to induced motor neurons. The rates of direct conversion respond biphasically to increasing HRASG12V levels. An optimal “Goldilocks” level of MAPK signaling efficiently drives cell-fate programming, whereas high levels of HRASG12V induce senescence. Through chemogenetic tuning, we set the optimal MAPK activity for high rates of conversion in the absence of HRAS mutants. In addition to proliferation, MAPK signaling influences conversion by regulating Ngn2 activity. Our results highlight the need to tune therapeutic interventions within a non-monotonic landscape that is shaped by genetics and levels of gene expression.